The South China Sea Dispute

The mho chinaw atomic number 18 ocean Dis layeOn 26 May and 9 June 2011, effective before and afterwards the Shangri La colloquy in Singapore, in which chinaware showd its commitment of maintaining mollification and constancy in mho mainland chinaware sea, Chinese fishery patrol ships sheer seismometer cables of Vietnams Binh Minh 02 and Viking 02 anoint geographic expedition vessels inside Vietnams Exclusive Economic Z sensation (EEZ), triggering a series of public demonstrations in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh city. Vietnamese acc using upd chinaware of systematic action that is aimed at turning the unquestioned firmament belonging to Vietnam into an area beneath bitterness in enunciate to materialize chinas nine-dotted store claim in the East sea2. chinaware responded to the complaint and protests by warning that every exploration in the neck of the woods of the quarreld Spratly islands without its consent was a violation of its jurisdiction and s everyplaceei gnty.3The incident is just an new(prenominal) evidence for the increasing tension in the Sino-Vietnamese relations oer the south chinaware sea dispute which has become a calefactory spot. The complex dispute is not only about the potential native resources or strategical stances of the area, but well-nigh importantly the territorial reserve reserve s everywhereeignty. In this dispute, Vietnam faces a challenging dilemma how to maintain and develop the strategic iso bilateral ties with china and establish the dispute in favor of its dry landal vex at the same time? Tracing the concerns of Vietnam, an all everyplaceview of the dispute will be provided in the first section before it comes to the polity dissertateion in the second section, in which cardinal possible selections are put onward (1) Multilateralize the dispute by ASEAN forum (2) Inter depicted objectize the dispute by involving external study motives (3) Resort to the internationalist law of th e sea and international arbitrament (4) Build up self-reliance (5) Go for knock management of overlapped resources (6) succor and struggle bilaterally and ten-sidedly. The paper concludes with recommendation of a comprehension antenna which is cooperating and fight bilaterally and multilaterally (policy pickaxe 6).II. OVERVIEW OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA dispute BETWEEN VIETNAM AND CHINA1. The signifi bungholece of the southwest China SeaThe South China Sea is a part of the Pacific Ocean which encompasses a large area of about 3,500,000 square kilometers, spreading from Singapore and the strait of Malacca to the Strait of Taiwan. It comprises more(prenominal) than than 200 small islands, reefs, and cays, most of which are inhabited. The two largest archipelagoes are the Paracel islands which covers an area of about 15,000 square kilometers with about 30 islets and reefs, and the Spratly islands which stretches over an area of 180,000 square kilometers with more than 100 featu res.4It is widely declare that the South China Sea, e specificly the two largest archipelagoes, has a great greatness in terms of geo-politics as intumesce as geo- scotchs because of its strategic location as a busy passageway for about one trine of worlds ships and presumed rich natural resources, especially rock oil and gas, underneath.52. The South China Sea DisputeApart from Vietnam and China, the South China Sea dispute involves quatern other disputants, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan. All disputants except Brunei occupy certain area. Vietnam occupies 21 islands, the Philippines, eight, China, seven, Malaysia, tailfin and Taiwan, one.6All claims are contact base on different historic rights, colonial inheritance, territorial and effective purposes, including overlapping and competing claims over either marine zone or reign over islands. The Philippines refers to the principle of discovery of unclaimed territories and claims sovereignty over Kalayaan archipelago which comprises eight islands in the Spratly archipelago7. Brunei and Malaysia make advantage of legal bases flagn by the 1982 United Nations congregation on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS or Convention) to assert their sovereignty rights over reefs for Brunei and islands in the southern Spratly for Malaysia. Taiwan, based on historic ground, claims its right over the Pratas island which used to be assiduous by China.China claims are based on the so-called nine-dotted U-shape line which first appeared in a map published in 1948 in a private publication in China and encompasses about 80 percent of the South China Sea, including the Paracel and the Spartly islands. Despite China claims its sovereignty over this area, giving that it has historical rights to do so because the Han dynasty in the second century used it as the sailing route,8it has never officially declared and ignore calls to clarify if it alike claims to the rights over ocean space enshut which is cold beyond 12 nautical miles from the disputed islands and includes EEZ and continental shelves that overlaps the continental shelves of other claimants as stipulated in the 1982 UNCLOS.9While the authenticity of Chinas historical rights to sovereignty over the area as well as its claim over the oceanic water remains un sop up, China opposes every activities by other claimants inwardly this U-shape line.Vietnam makes reference to historical data, effective stock, colonial inheritance and legal ground to claim its sovereignty over the Paracel and the Spratly islands as well as more than 200 nautical miles of continental rights as stipulated in the 1982 UNCLOS. It has cited a form of credible documents and maps to prove its occupation and sovereignty exercise over the islands since at least the Le dynasty in the 15th century, through with(predicate)out the French colonial time until 1974, when China used force to seize the Paracel, killing 53 Vietnamese soldiers10and 1988, when the two sides clashed again in the Spartly islands, Vietnam lost 7 islands to China and 64 Vietnamese soldiers were killed.11The Paracel and 7 lost islands in the Spratly islands were placed under the jurisdiction of Hainan Province.Below are roughly recent developments that provide a snapshot of the increasing tension mingled with the two countries over the disputeIn May 2009, Vietnam and Malaysia submitted a joint report on territorial claims in the South China Sea to the UN Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf. In response, China submitted its U-shape line map.12On 26 May and 9 June 2011, China ship cut the cables of two Vietnamese oil explorations vessels, ramping up the public protests in Vietnam.China detains and seizes hundreds of Vietnamese fishermen every year, accusing them of violating its biased fishing ban. On 22 February 2012, Vietnam accused China of shooting and damaging a Vietnamese fishing boat near the Paracel. On 3 March 2012, China detained 21 Vietn amese fishermen and their two boats in amniotic fluid near the Paracel and demanded each boat $11,000. Vietnam sacrosanctly protested against the requests13.On 15 June 2012, Vietnam conducted a host air patrol over the Spratly islands and then announced even air patrol practice. In response, on 28 June 2012, China in addition commenced regular air patrol to the Spratly islands.14China warns and threatens foreign companies for joint oil exploration activities with Vietnam in the overlapping area darn offering oil break offs to its foreign partners. On 23 June 2012, China offered nine blocks located within Vietnams 200 nautical miles EEZ to foreign operators. Vietnam condemned Chinas illegal offer and requested China to cease the bidding.15On 21 June 2012, Vietnam passed the Law of the Sea of Vietnam restating its claims over the Paracel and Spratlly islands. In a tit-for-tat response, China immediately announced the establishment of prefecture-level Sansha City (officially cre ated on 24 July 2012) to administer the disputed islands and surrounding waters as well as the establishment of a military base (officially created on 19 July 2012) in the City. Vietnam condemned the establishment of Sansha City, stating that it violated international law, seriously violating Vietnam sovereignty over the Paracel and Spratly archipelagoes.16The above developments indicate an action-reaction cycle with escalating strains in the South China Sea which makes it difficult to reach a solution acceptable by the some(prenominal) sides. The following section will discuss several policy options for Vietnam to chill out the South China Sea dispute with China.III. POLICY OPTIONS1. Multilateralize the dispute through ASEAN forumThis option implies that Vietnam should sojourn to highlight the issue in ASEAN emphasize the impacts of the dispute on the regional stability and peace in run to forge a united front to persuade China to clobber the issue peacefully and multilaterall y.17ASEAN comprises four out of six claimants, thus it is the most important platform for claimants to meet, discuss and seek for available solutions. The body achieved some success in ramp uping mutual trust and confidence between ASEAN claimants and China. Some evidences are the 1992 firmness on the South China Sea, the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties ( atomic number 101) and the 2011 Guidelines to Implement the DOC in which stated that the dispute should be solved by peaceful nub, through friendly consultations and negotiations by sovereign states directly concerned. These documents, however, bugger off no legal force. Therefore, ASEAN and China collapse also agree in principle that a more binding Code of Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (COC) take to be quickly completed and adopted.Yet the ASEANs effectiveness in resolve the dispute is being questioned. As mentioned, the DOC was just a governmental statement with no legal binding requirement. China agreed to discuss the COC at an enchant timing but has never stated when an appropriate timing is.18Most importantly, divisions between member states, stemming from different perspectives on the South China Sea and differences in the value each member places on their relations with China, sire prevented ASEAN from coming to a consensus on the issue.19On one side, claimants might share the same stand towards China but none of them is volition to compromise with other claimants over the sovereignty issue. On the other side, non-claimants ASEAN members value the relations with China which are believed to be affected if they are moveed into any undesirable conflict with China. The recent failure of ASEAN in transport forward a joint statement at the July 2012 Foreign Ministers clashing in Phnom Penh due to the divergence in attitudes towards the dispute is a clear evidence for this internal ASEAN clash. This also indicates Chinas influence over other ASEAN members, Cambodia as AS EAN Chair in this case, to maintain its interests. Even if Vietnam, through its lobby efforts to pull ASEAN claimants and non-claimants together, it is still difficult to reach a solution since China insists on its bilateral negotiation strategy of treat each case differently, and shoot down each one separately.202. Internationalize the dispute by involving outside major powersThis option suggests that Vietnam should deepen its multifaceted relations, including economic, diplomatic and military cooperation, with outside powers who go interests in the South China Sea emphasize the magnificence of the peace and stability of South China Sea towards their interests in battle array to promote a common effort of navigating Chinas aggressive claims and actions in the region.Over the previous(prenominal) years, Vietnam has had some success in expanding and strengthening its relations with major powers through a wide range of cooperation, including regular military visits, military t echnology and weapons exchanges and joint energy exploration. For example, to deepen relations with the U.S who has the largest economic interests in the South China Sea with $1.2 trillion out of $5.3 trillion of total muckle passes, Vietnam has facilitated joint rescue exercise with the U.S army, allowed U.S warship to access the military Carm Ranh bespeak for the first time since the end of the Vietnam War21, offered gas and oil block in Vietnams EEZ to the U.S ExxonMobil oil caller-up, etc. This results in a stronger stake of the U.S in the disputed area. At the 2010 Shangri La Dialogue in Singapore, the then U.S apology Secretary Robert Gates expressed U.S interests in Vietnams offshore oil exploration and declared that the U.S opposes to any effort to intimidate U.S corporations or those of any nation engaged in legitimate economic activity22. At the 2010 ASEAN regional Forum in Hanoi, U.S. Secretary Hillary Clinton declared that the United States has a national interest in bring outdom of navigation, open access to Asias maritime parking lot and respect for international law in the South China Sea and called for a collaborative diplomatic process by all claimants for resolving the various territorial disputes. Apart from the U.S, Vietnam has been testing to boost relations with other major powers. For instance, in September 2011, Vietnam was successful to reach an agreement on joint exploration with India. Vietnam has also maintained activities of Russian energy company Gazprom in joint oil exploration projects in Vietnams maritime waters. Besides, during 2009 alone, Vietnam bought from Russia six Kilo-grass submarines and 12 Su-30MKK fighters, becoming one of top weapon importers of Russia23. The growing family with major powers as well as increasing involvement of these major powers in the disputed area does help to increase Vietnams leverage to China in the South China Sea dispute. Now China made efforts to further engage Vietnam through part y-to-party talks and keep their disagreements behind closed door.24However, Vietnam should stay aware that strong alignments with major powers to residue too crisply against China would irritate China and lead to subsequent negative economic and political consequences. Meanwhile, Vietnam cannot outright rely on any major powers because these countries have their own priorities and their consistent longstanding position in the South China Sea is neutrality. In other words, they might be willing to apply the relation with Vietnam if it conflicts with their priority interests. Vietnam should never get too close to any powers but better to maintain limited alignments to just keep China in check.3. Resort to the international law of the sea and international arbitramentThis option recommends that Vietnam should resort to the international frameworks to solve the dispute, that is, Vietnam should present evidences of its sovereignty rights over the Paracel and Spratly islands, which a bides by the 1982 UNCLOS, to the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea in order to gain international support and acknowledgment of Vietnams facts on the ground while at the same time putting pressure on China to clarify its claims and evidences.The 1982 UNCLOS is aimed to manage potential conflicts/disputes among countries over the rights to the worlds ocean. It holds valid legal act to sovereignty over their islands has exclusive right to exploit living and inanimate resources within 12 miles of their territorial sea and 200 miles beyond, known as the exclusive economic zone (EEZ).25Vietnam has ratified and abided by the 1982 UNCLOS since 1994. Its 2012 Law of the Sea, in which clarifying its territorial seas, EEZ and continental shelf, was also built on the provide of the 1982 UNCLOS. Vietnam has also been providing its historical data showing that it has been exercising effective occupation of the islands for a long time. Recently, it introduced a 1904 Chinese officia l map which showed that the Paracel and Spratly islands were not belong to China26and received attention from international experts and community. Therefore, it is very plausibly that Vietnam will win over China if the case is sent to the international tribunal.China is also a participant of the UNCLOS (since 1996) but its interpretation of the Convention is controversial. China has never clarified its vague claim of historical rights of the area inside the U-shape line which is not suitable and so unlikely to be supported by the provisions of the law. It rejected the mechanism for international arbitration and adjudication provided by UNCLOS27and prefers bilateral negotiations with other claimants in which China will have more advantageous position.4. Build up self-relianceThis option proposes Vietnam to cause up its internal economic and military capabilities to deter Chinas aggression by continuing reforming its economy and modernizing its military forces.Given that China used to use force to seize the Paracel and a part of the Spratly in the past as well as it has been growing its military strengths and being more assertive to claim its ownership over the islands, there could be a run into that China would use force again and/or use its raise economic power to put pressure on Vietnam and other countries to give up on the issue.Being aware of Chinas threat, Vietnamese government has been developing its internal strengths, twain economic and military inclusive, especially military capability. Compared to 2003, Vietnams military spending has been increased by 83% in 201228, in which more often than not is invested in developing naval and air forces a large inwardness of budget has been spent on weapons purchase. Vietnam is currently one of the top importers of Russias weapons29. It is also persuading the U.S to lift the ban on lethal weapons so that it could purchase more U.S weapons and modernize military.30Pessimists believe that despite economic a nd military strengthening efforts, Vietnam can never outweigh China in economy and military power but still under Chinas influence. Economically, China is the largest economic partner of Vietnam with anticipate two-way trade of $60 meg in 2015 Chinese products currently account 60% imports of Vietnam31. Militarily, Vietnams 2012 military budget is $3.3 billion while Chinas is $106.4 billion32. However, these economic and military strengthening efforts still deserve a try because if conflict is the case, it will impose certain costs on China and so deter Chinas aggressive actions.5. Go for joint management of overlapped resourcesThis option implies Vietnams possible consideration of joint management of resources at areas where claims are overlapped with China. This means both sides have to reach a consensus over the measure of maritime space surrounding each island, regardless of ownership, and then agree to together with administer the overlapped claimed area outside the maritime space. This differs from the early 1990s end of shelving disputes and going for joint development by the late Chinese attraction Deng Xiaoping in which China ignored the possibility of joint development in the Paracel while proposing a joint management with Vietnam in the West avant-garde Bank Basin locating in Vietnams maritime waters.33Obstacles to this attempt of joint management is that China claims much of the South China Sea, including most of the Vietnams islands and asserts its rights to one-sidedly benefit from the resources while Vietnam is also strong in its position of sovereignty rights over these islands. Both sides have condemned each other of exploring and exploiting natural resources, primarily fish and gas-oil, within their maritime waters. China consistently challenged foreign oil companies having joint exploration activities with Vietnam and warned them of unspecified consequences in their business dealings with China. This stalwart attitude by the both sid es, especially by China, makes it impossible for a consensus to be reached on measuring the overlapped area which is not really belongs to any party.6. Policy Recommendation Cooperate and struggle bilaterally and multilaterallyVietnam should consider a comprehensive approach that provides it with flexibility and effectiveness in dealing with China. This option is, therefore, recommended because it develops a comprehensive approach by taking into account of both bilateral and multilateral cooperation and struggle, considering the special characteristics of the Sino-Vietnamese relationshipDeepen the multifaceted bilateral relationship with China through different networks of Party-to-Party, Government-to-Government, and People-to-People, especially Party-to-Party channel. History shows that the special relation between the two communist parties enables the two sides to repair their bilateral relations fast after serious incidents. For example, strains in the Vietnam-China relations af ter the May and June 2011 events was significantly reduced after the visit to China by Vietnam Communist Party General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong in October 2011 when the two sides agreed on the six basic principles in settlement of the dispute, emphasizing the importance of negotiations and friendly consultations.34Encourage ASEAN unity as a primary multilateral platform to restoration Chinas assertiveness. ASEAN has certain setbacks but it cannot be denied that through DOC and other cooperation mechanisms such as ARF, FTA, ASEAN has some significant success in building mutual confidence and developing mutual interests with China. Of course, as analyzed, it is high-risk to forge a united and effective stance among ASEAN members however, common interests of peace, free navigation and other legal interests under the 1982 UNCLO could be driving forces to make this more likely to happen.Deepen ties with major powers. Direct interests of maintaining free navigation in the South China Sea are motivations for these powers to align with ASEAN and Vietnam to balance against Chinas aggression. The depth and durability of commitment by these major powers, however, might be doubted because they also have their own priorities. Therefore, Vietnam should not outright rely on the outside powers to outright balance against China, but maintain a prophylactic distance from either side and at the same time build up its capacity for self-reliance.Well prepare and announce sufficient historical and legal data to prove Vietnams sovereignty rights over the Paracel and Spartly islands mobilize media, including affable media, to effectively involve in the issue by providing transparent and fall off information in order to make Chinese people and international community to understand correctly about the situation, urge the world to support Vietnam and impose pressure on China to clarify its claims.III. CONCLUSIONThe South China Sea dispute between Vietnam and China has become more and more sensitive and complicated because both countries are so strong in their own positions in the dispute that no one is willing to compromise their rights over the Paracel and Spratly islands a convergence of geo-politics and geo-economics. Vietnam has more credible historical and legal data to prove its sovereignty rights over the islands but the strategic significance of China to Vietnam and Chinas assertiveness put Vietnam in a policy dilemma between developing the strategic bilateral relationship and struggling to win over China in the dispute. To reduce tensions, Vietnam should have a comprehensive approach, that is, boosting bilateral ties while seeking ways to balance against China at the same time, internally or externally. In this connection, this paper recommends Vietnam to at the same time (i) deepen its multifaceted relationship with China through Party-to-Party, Government-to-Government and People-to-People channels (ii) continue to take advantage of ASEAN as a p rimary platform to counter Chinas claims (iii) develop ties with major powers while not forget to build up self-reliance and (iv) make public all evidence to prove Vietnams sovereignty rights to the Paracel and Spratly island in order to gain support from international community and put pressure on China to clarify its claims and deter its aggressive actions. However, it should be acknowledged that since the core of the South China Sea dispute is the territorial sovereignty that involved claimants will never want to compromise, it might too sensitive and complex for a feasible solution to thoroughly settle the dispute in a foreseeable future.